【摘要】 定义路径行程时间可靠性为在交通事故期间内平均路径行驶时间小于事故前路径出行时间乘以可接受拥堵水平的概率,由此导出路网行程时间可靠性.假定事故持续时间服从正态分布并将研究时域划分成相同的时段,在先进出行信息下,利用元胞传输模型进行路段流量加载,给出了每一个时段内路径行程时间的递推式,并在每一个时段内更新1次路径出行时间,出行者根据更新的出行时间运用Logit模型进行路径决策,最后基于Monte-Carlo法模拟求解路网行程时间可靠性.算例结果表明,行程时间可靠性随事故持续时间和方差及需求的增加而减小;可靠性随可接受拥堵水平的增加而增加;在拥堵网络中,包含事故路段的OD间需求越高,可靠性越低.更多还原

【Abstract】 The route travel time reliability is defined as the probability that the mean route travel time during incident is less than the pre-accident route travel time multiplied by the acceptable congestion level, and derived road network travel time reliability. Assuming that the duration of the accident obeys the normal distribution and divided the study time domain into several equal sub-packets, under the advanced travel information systems, the traffic flow is carried out by the cell transmission model, and the recursion of the path travel time in each subpacket is given. Route travel time is updated in each sub-packet, traveler uses Logit model to make the path decision based on the updated travel time. Finally, Monte Carlo method is proposed to solve the travel time reliability of the road network. The results show that the reliability of the travel time decreases with the increase of the duration and variance of the accident and the increase of the demand. The reliability increases with the increase of the acceptable congestion level. In the congested network, the demand between the ODs including the accident road is higher, the lower the reliability.更多还原