【摘要】 基于1997—2016年间中国木质家具出口蒙古和俄罗斯的贸易时间序列数据,运用引力模型分析影响中国木质家具出口蒙古和俄罗斯的主要因素,并进一步测算其出口潜力。结果表明:中国木质家具对蒙古和俄罗斯的出口均有不足。因此,应加快中蒙俄经济走廊建设,提高中国木质家具的竞争力水平,加大中国木质家具对蒙古和俄罗斯的出口。更多还原

【Abstract】 ⑴ Background——China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor is the important part of"Belt and Road Initiative". As far as wooden furniture is concerned,Russia has abundant forest resources,Mongolia’s wood-processing industry is laggard and China has abundant capital and mature wood-processing technology. The trade between three countries is complementary and facilitate cooperation with each other. Mongolia and Russia have gradually become a burgeoning market of China’s wooden furniture export. Therefore,it is necessary to research the trade potential of China’s wooden furniture exports to Mongolia and Russia.⑵ Methods——With the comparative advantage index and trade intensity index,as an alternative variable of wooden furniture industry competitiveness,and the introduction GDP,population,exchange rate and trade distance variable into the gravity model,we measure the export of Mongolia and Russia China’s wooden furniture potential under the influence of these factors.⑶ Results——The comparative advantage index of China’s wooden furniture industry is more than 2. 5 in these with first drop and then rise. This indicates that China’s wooden furniture industry has strong competitiveness advantages in the export market,which favor to the export of Chinese wooden furniture. As an exporter to Mongolia wooden furniture trade,the integration index of China to Mongolia is more than 1,while the integration index of China to Russia wooden furniture trade is less than 1. It illustrates that China and Mongolia have a close relation in wooden furniture trade and China and Russia have a relatively loose relation in wooden furniture trade. According to the results of the potential coefficient calculation,Mongolia is the trade potential development type with potentials for development,so China and Mongolia can introduce new positive factors to the existing conditions to boost the trade development; Russia belongs to a greater trade potential type,China and Russia should strengthen trade cooperation.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The GDP of Chinese wooden furniture trade in China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor has a significant positive impact on Chinese wooden furniture trade and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a negative impact on Chinese wooden furniture trade. And the improvement of the competitiveness of China’s wooden furniture can promote the export of China’s wooden furniture to Mongolia.In summary,under the trend of the times,with the development opportunities of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor,China should actively improve infrastructure,promote regional integration,encourage wooden furniture enterprises to go abroad and develop the competitiveness of wooden furniture,and actively attract foreign investments and talents,further study the demands of export market. These three nations should perfect the forestry industry related policies and regulations by the meetings and the dialogues in order to provide a better environment for Chinese wooden furniture exports.更多还原