【摘要】 本文首先基于1991-2015年台商对大陆的农业投资数据对台商农业投资规模、投资结构、投资区域进行了分析;其次从需求和供给两个角度选取两岸农产品贸易的影响因素,通过建模重点分析了台商对大陆农业投资(TDI)对两岸贸易的效应,同时进行了时间序列稳定性检验、E-G协整检验以确保实证结论更加严谨准确。结果表明:台商农业投资扩大了台湾对大陆的农产品出口规模,而抑制了进口规模,对台湾呈现贸易顺差效应,对大陆则为逆差效应。综合考察,台商农业投资对两岸的效应是双赢、互利的。最后,基于实证结果提出新形势下利用台商农业投资提高大陆农业生产力及进一步优化台湾农业投资结构等相应对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on Taiwan’s agricultural investment data in Mainland during 1991-2015,the paper firstly analyzes its investment scale, structure and region. The results demonstrate that Taiwan’s agricultural investment enlarges the scale of Taiwan’s agricultural exports to Mainland and reduces the scale of its imports,showing a trade surplus effect on Taiwan and a deficit effect on the Mainland. Comprehensively speaking,Taiwan’s agricultural investment is a win-win and mutually beneficial behavior to Taiwan and the Mainland. Finally,according to this,the paper puts forward some suggestions on improving Mainland’s agricultural productivity by using Taiwan’s agricultural investment and further optimizing Taiwan’s agricultural investment structure.更多还原