【摘要】 新能源替代传统化石能源对实现2030年碳排放达峰目标具有重要作用。新能源发电替代减排是碳减排最为重要的形式之一,积极开展相关领域的研究意义重大。本文在对国内外有关新能源发电替代减排的研究文献进行搜集、整理和分析总结的基础上,对已有研究成果从新能源资源潜力评估、发电替代减排量测算、产业全生命周期碳排放计算和减排的成本效益等四个方面进行了整理。综述发现已有的新能源发电减排量测算方法各有利弊,新能源产业自身碳排放核算缺乏统一的界定范围,而且新能源的开发成本和效益也缺乏明确的核算标准。最后,本文从如何对新能源的技术进步率进行科学预测、系统地建立新能源发展与减排的效益评估体系、减排目标下新能源产业发展路径的描述等研究方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 To achieve the 2030 carbon emissions peak target,it is important to replace fossil fuels with new energy sources. Using new energy generation to reduce carbon emissions is one of the most important forms. It is particularly important to carry out research in related fields. On the basis of collecting and summarizing research into new energy generation reducing carbon emissions in China and abroad,we combed the literature from the aspects of new energy resource potential assessment,emission replacement calculation,life cycle carbon emission calculation and cost-benefit analysis. We found that current studies have the following issues:(1)the calculating methods of new energy generation reducing carbon emissions have advantages and disadvantages;(2)carbon emission accounting of new energy industry itself lacks a uniform definition of calculating scope;(3)costs and benefits of new energy development also lack clear accounting standards. Finally,future research directions are discussed regarding scientific prediction of new energies’ technological progress rate,establishing benefit evaluation systems of new energy development and emission reduction,and describing the development path of new energy industry under emission reduction targets.更多还原