【摘要】 文章以北京、上海、广州、深圳4个特大城市为例,结合国内外公开数据和对北京市部分街道、乡镇的实地调研信息,探讨中国特大城市人口发展中存在的问题,以及"十三五"期间人口调控面临的挑战和应对策略。研究结果显示,当前中国特大城市人口发展面临的主要问题是总量大而非增长速度快,城区人口密度高而经济聚集优势不足,人口调控将加速人口老龄化,外来人口未改善城市人口聚集度等。"十三五"期间人口调控的主要困境和挑战是人口调控政策目标孤立,与经济增长目标相悖;外来人口仍集中在效率较低的行业,人口调控的市场准备不足;特大城市经济发展增速放缓,人口调控可能进一步弱化其经济增长;产业内部升级不足,与人口调控目标不同步;人口统计数据失灵、滞后,难以满足人口调控的过程管理要求。文章认为,特大城市要从人口目标与经济要素相协调适应、建立都市圈总体产业规划、将资源要素纳入人口调控框架、完善人口信息技术的角度优化人口调控机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on public data concered and field surveys in some urban and rural subdistricts in Beijing, this paper addresses the problems of population development in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and discusses the challenges and the coping strategies of population management during the 13thFive-year. The results show that the main problems in population development include the large amount instead of the growth rate, the high urban population density with insufficient economic agglomeration, the sharper population ageing driven by population regulation, and unrelieved population aggregation coupling with the floating populations. Combined with current measurements and effects of population regulation, this paper points out the main difficulties and challenges faced by population control during the 13thFive-year. It includes that(1)The target of population policy is isolated and does not match the objectives of economic growth.(2) Floating populations have mainly worked in the low efficiency industries.(3) Market preparation to population regulation is insufficient.(4) Economic growth rates of the magacities have slowed down, and population regulation may further weaken the economy. In addition, the internal upgrading within industries can not support the population development targets, and population data are neither accurate nor timely to suit population administration. This paper proposes four suggestions about improving population regulation mechanism for mega-cities, including the combination of population with economy, overall industrial planning in each metropolitan area, interaction of population and industry re-distribution, and consideration of putting resources in population management, and advancing IT application in population data management.更多还原