【摘要】 强降雨和外江潮位高度直接影响着广州城区受洪涝灾害的程度,对降雨和潮位进行关联性分析,可以为广州市内涝防治提供科学依据。该文构建了年最大潮位和相应1 h降雨量与年最大1 h降雨量和相应潮位关联性分析模型,采用最大熵-AMH Copula方法分别对雨潮组合的治涝风险概率、同现风险概率、组合风险概率、遭遇风险概率进行了比较分析。结果表明:治涝风险概率随两变量重现期的减小而增大;两种组合下的同现分布概率均远小于单变量设计频率;年最大1 h降雨量与相应潮位的相关关系较年最高潮位与相应1 h降雨量的相关关系更弱;在实际工程设计中,适当提高降雨(潮位)设计值可有效降低治涝、遭遇和组合风险概率值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rainstorm and tides are two factors of Guangzhou’s urban waterlogging. The correlation of the rainstorm and tides is carried out in order to provide basis for risk analysis of waterlogging in Guangzhou. The model about the correlation of the annual maximum tidal level and the corresponding one-hour rainfall,annual maxima of one-hour rainfall and tidal level are established. Maximum Entropy-AMH Copula is used to build conditional waterlog prevention risk model,simultaneous risk model,joint risk model and encountered risk model. The results show that the simultaneous risk probability of two kinds of combinations is less than the single variable frequency; Compared to the correlation between the annual maximum tidal level and the corresponding one-hour rainfall,a weaker correlation is between the annual maxima of one-hour rainfall and tidal level. In the actual engineering design,improving the tide level( rainfall) standard can reduce the risk probability of the two variables.更多还原