【摘要】 为研究油气储罐区多米诺事故中耦合效应对事故扩展的影响,通过借鉴不同领域耦合效应的定义及内涵,提出多米诺事故中耦合效应的定义,并构建多灾种多因素耦合情景及耦合效应影响因素图;针对某一罐区,运用贝叶斯网络模型分析发生池火灾时热辐射的耦合效应,借助Netica软件探讨某储罐发生池火灾时事故的最大可能传播路径。结果表明:储罐受到多热辐射的共同影响即多热辐射场耦合作用时,多米诺事故发生概率明显增大;当储罐V11发生池火灾时,为预防多米诺事故的发生,需要重点对储罐V21采取保护措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate the influence of coupling effect in domino incidents in a petroliferous storage tank area on the propagation of accident,the definitions and connotations of coupling effect in different fields were used for reference,a definition of coupling effect in the domino incidents was given,and the multihazard and multi-factor coupling scenarios and a diagram of influence factors of coupling effect were built.Subsequently,the coupling effect of the thermal radiation caused by pool fire in a certain storage tank area was analyzed based on Bayesian network model. And the Netica software was used to analyze the most likely propagation path of the accident caused by pool fire. The results show that probability of domino incidents will increase when the tank is affected by the coupling effect of the multi-thermal radiation,and that protective measures of tank V21 should be seriously taken to prevent the occurrence of domino incidents when pool fire occurs at tank V11.更多还原