【摘要】 生产预测模型法和水驱特征曲线法是2种重要的油藏工程分析方法,常用于油田开发指标预测,但二者均存在不同程度的缺陷:生产预测模型法不能预测含水率,水驱特征曲线法不能预测开发指标随时间的变化关系。基于Morgan-Mercer-Flodin(MMF)生长模型特点分析,推导出了胡-陈模型,并简化了参数求解过程,将MMF生长模型与水驱特征曲线相结合,建立了预测油田含水率的联解模型,克服了生产预测模型法和水驱特征曲线法的不足。油田实际开发资料与模型预测结果对比结果表明,联解模型的预测精度较高,可以满足油田生产动态分析的需要,对油田开发方案的制定及调整具有指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Production prediction model and water drive type curves are two important methods in reservoir engineering analysis which aregenerally applied in oilfield development index prediction. But both the two methods have some limitations—production prediction modelcan’t be used to forecast water cut, and water drive type curve can’t be used to predict the changes of development indexes with time.Based on the feature analysis of Morgan-Mercer-Flodin(MMF) growth model, this paper derived the Hu-Chen model, simplified the processof parameter solving and established a combined solution model for water cut prediction in oilfields, which could overcome the deficienciesof the original two methods. The comparison of the actual development data with the results predicted by the model showed that the relative-ly high prediction accuracy of the model could meet the demand of production performance analysis, which could be a guidance for oilfielddevelopment plan making and adjustment.更多还原