【摘要】 重庆市老龄化率居全国之首,老年人口数继续呈上升趋势,解决养老问题,发展养老产业势在必行。文章对重庆市65岁及以上老年人口数进行预测,通过GM(1,1)基础模型和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,在充分考虑扰动因素和驱动因素等新信息影响的基础上,借助Matlab软件编程计算和检验,对重庆市2015~2020年65岁及以上老年人口进行预测。预测结果表明:2015~2020年间重庆市65岁及以上老年人口数不断增长,2020年将突破400万人,说明重庆未来养老形势异常严峻,并对此针对性提出对策建议。模型精度检验表明模型精度为一级,模型预测结果可靠性高、可信度强,模型适合人口中长期预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The population aging rate of Chongqing City ranks first in China,the number of the elderly population continues to rise, and it is imperative to solve the problem of the aged. This paper forecast the number of the population aged 65 and above of Chongqing City,Based on full consideration of the disturbance factors and driving factors of new information effect,the paper use GM(1,1) based model and metabolic GM(1,1) model,with testing and programming calculation of MATLAB software,to predict population aged 65 and older between 2015~2020 of Chongqing City. Prediction results show that: between 2015~2020 years,the population aged 65 and above in Chongqing City will keep increasing,and it will exceed 4 million people in 2020,the future of the elderly in Chongqing is very grim. and at last the paper provides some advices for the situation. Model accuracy test shows that the model accuracy is level 1. The model prediction results are high reliability and believability. The model is suitable for the long-term prediction of population.更多还原