【摘要】 随着网络化社交工具的日益普及与应用,研究社交网络中的舆情传播行为与机制具有重要的理论和实际应用意义.通过对微信用户(含公众号)网络行为的分析,重点研究网络中谣言的传播行为,并提出了一种在SIR模型基础之上的改进模型-S1S2IR双S谣言传播模型.其核心改进思路是将"普通用户(S)"细分成受微信公众号影响的用户子集和受微信好友影响的用户子集,该划分从数学建模的角度来讲是切实可行的,并得出平均场方程且对其稳定性进行分析和验证.利用MATLAB进行模拟仿真,对传播过程进行数值模拟,分析在谣言传播过程中,不同参数的变化,对谣言传播过程的影响.最后得出政府部门不仅要对微信用户之间的交流接触进行管理,同时对于微信公众账号也要进行严格的审核和管控,减少谣言在微信中的传播,维持社会的稳定.更多还原

【Abstract】 Through the analysis of rumors in the transmission mechanism in the WeChat,there are two approaches in Wechat,one is by WeChat public and hot recommended and another is WeChat users contact others to spread.A S1S2IR rumor propagation model which is closer to the reality was proposed.The corresponding mean-field euqations were given out and their stability was analysed.The influence to all people on the process of rumor spreading in homogeneous network was simulated,and the influence that the network parameters have on the spreading process was analyzed.Finally,the above conclusions show that government departments should not only control the WeChat users communications between each other,but also review WeChat official accounts to reduce the influence of rumor on the public and society.更多还原