【摘要】 利用1979~2015年江苏省12个气象台站日最低气温资料,按照最新寒潮标准对不同强度寒潮分类统计,运用线性趋势法、M-K突变检验以及小波分析方法,分析了影响江苏地区寒潮过程的气候特征及其变化。结果表明:江苏省单站寒潮及单站强寒潮发生频次的空间分布特征相似,大体上呈现出由西北向东南递减、由沿海向内陆递增趋势,以中路路径为主;特强寒潮发生频次由东北向西南递减,以东路路径为主。历史上影响江苏的寒潮月际及季节分布明显,秋冬季较多,春季较少;强寒潮总体呈不显著增加趋势,但在2009年以后显著增加;特强寒潮在1986年以后呈现出显著增加趋势。小波分析表明,不同强度的寒潮具有不同的周期特征。寒潮及强寒潮在气候变暖的背景下不稳定性增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the daily minimum air temperature data of 12 stations in Jiangsu province during 1979 ~ 2015,the author carried out the classified statistics of different intensities of cold wave based on the newest cold wave criterion. By using linear trend method,Mann-Kendall mutation test,and wavelet analysis,we analyzed the climatic characteristics and variations of the cold wave process affecting Jiangsu area. The results indicated that:( 1) In Jiangsu province,the spatial distribution characteristics of single-station cold wave frequency were similar to those of single-station strong cold wave frequency,and their frequency generally showed a gradual increase trend from southeast to northwest,and from coast to inland,especially in the middle route.( 2) The frequency of extra severe cold wave gradually decreased from northeast to southwest,mainly in the eastern route.( 3) From 1979 to 2015,the monthly and seasonal distribution of cold wave frequency in Jiangsu was obvious,more in autumn and winter,and less in spring; the frequency of cold wave and strong cold wave which influenced Jiangsu area decreased and increased mildly,respectively. But the frequency of strong cold wave increased significantly since the year 2009. The frequency of extra severe cold wave revealed a significant increasing trend since 1986.( 4) Wavelet analysis found that different intensities of cold wave had different periodic characteristics. The instability of both cold wave and strong cold wave increased under the background of climate warming.更多还原