【摘要】 以广西为例,基于区域系统论的视角,从社会系统、资源系统和环境系统子系统选取21个指标构建环境承载力评价指标体系,以层次分析法确定指标权重,采用灰色关联法对2005-2014年广西环境承载力状况进行量化测度和系统分析,利用主成分分析法对承载力结果验证分析。结果表明:(1)从时序变化上看,2005-2014年,关联度由62.43提高至92.35,广西承载力水平逐年提高,高速发展的社会经济是环境承载力的最直接驱动力。(2)主成分分析法因剔除部分信息故导致评价结果波动大,灰色关联法评价结果稳定且差距小,但两者反映的趋势和结论是一致的,说明评价结果精度较好。(3)通过环境系统短板因子分析,水环境质量良好且逐年改善,固废指数呈"低-高-低"态势,大气污染成为阻碍广西环境治理的关键。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the perspective of regional system theory, 21 indicators are chosen to build the system of carrying capac-ity evaluation from three carrying subsystems, i.e. economy subsystem, resource subsystem and environment subsystem, and analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the index weight and grey relational analysis is used to quantitatively measure and systematically analyze the environmental carrying capacity of Guangxi region. After that,the paper adopts the Matter-element evaluation model to compare the result with that calculated by grey relational analysis. The comparative analysis sug-gests that judging from the timing change, the correlation degree is increased from 62.43 to 92.35, which indicates that the overall environmental carrying capacity in Guangxi continues to improve,owing to rapid development of the social economy,which is the direct driving force to promote environmental carrying capacity. The result calculated by matter-element evalua-tion model showed a trend of fluctuations while the result calculated by grey relational analysis is quite smooth and steady;however, both methods reach an unanimous conclusion, which indicates the accuracy of evaluation. By way of the weakness factor analysis of environment subsystem, it has been showed the quality of water environmental is favorable and improved year by year, and solid waste indicator showing the trend from low to high and then to low, while air pollution has become the main negative factor to impede environmental governance.更多还原