【摘要】 根据河南省沁阳市1971-2013年日照时数、气温和降水资料,采用滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变分析和多元回归分析,探讨沁阳市气候变化特征及其与怀药生长和产量的关系。结果表明:沁阳市冬季和春季平均气温升温率分别为0.4℃/10a和0.5℃/10a,怀药生长期平均气温变化趋势为0.3℃/10a;≥10℃活动积温呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05)且持续时间延长;年降水量呈现不明显的下降趋势,降水季节分布与怀药不同生长期"少-多-少"的需水过程一致;强降水事件的减少有利于降低蓄根类怀药根(茎)腐烂的风险;气候变暖有利于怀药品质和产量的提高;在怀药全生长期间,气温和降水的同期协调作用显著影响怀药的产量(P<0.05)。研究结果可为气候变化背景下怀药生产区采取科学的生产管理措施提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of the meteorological database including monthly cumulative sunshine hours,temperature and precipitation( 1971- 2013) from Qinyang Meteorological Bureau,Henan province,the climatic change characteristics and its effect on the growth and production of the Huai medicine were analyzed by the methods of moving average,M-K mutation test and multiple linear regression. The results showed that the average temperature increased at the average speed of 0. 3 ℃ /10 a in the period of the Huai medicine growth. The average temperature increased 0. 4 ℃ /10 a and 0. 5 ℃ /10 a in winter season and spring season,respectively. Accumulated temperature ≥10℃ presents significantly increasing trend( P < 0. 05) and delaying sustained time. The mean annual precipitation decreased slightly. Theseasonal distribution of precipitation was corresponding to the water requirement of the Huai medicine in different growth processes,and the frequency of strong precipitation has decreased,which resists the decaying roots or tubers to a certain extent. The cooperative function of the atmospheric temperature and precipitation significantly affects the production of the Huai medicine( P < 0. 05) in the growth period and in the inflated period of roots and / or tubers. The atmospheric temperature change comprised a crucial factor on the Huai medicine production in Qinyang County. To ensure the Huai medicine quality,production and the market demand,the responding measures need to be adopted in the Huai medicine origin region with the global warming.更多还原