【摘要】 为了提高短时强降水预报准确率,及时为政府提供准确的预报服务,笔者利用常规观测资料和Micaps系统提供的资料,使用天气学诊断和中尺度分析方法,对2015年8月1日夜间发生在山西省中部的短时强降水天气过程进行实况分析、中尺度分析和卫星云图分析。结果表明:强降水出现时间与850 h Pa切变线和地面辐合线移动,以及TBB负值中心的移向相联系;强降水出现在地面幅合线的附近,850 h Pa暖切的南侧,200 h Pa高空急流分流幅散区的下方;强降水出现的区域与TBB<-52℃区域,以及地面辐合线有很好的对应关系;强降水中心落在TBB值低于-52℃的负中心内。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper aims to improve the forecast accuracy of short-term heavy rainfall, and provide referencesfor the government decision making. By using conventional observation data and information provided byMicaps system, the authors adopted the synoptics diagnosis and mesoscale analysis method to conduct live rainfall, mesoscale and satellite cloud image analysis of the short-term heavy rainfall process occurred on August1, 2015 in central Shanxi Province. Results showed that: the heavy rainfall appearance time was associatedwith 850 h Pa shear line and the ground convergence line movement, and the moving direction of TBB negativecenter; heavy rainfall appeared near the ground convergence line, in south of 850 h Pa warm shear, and at thebottom of 200 h Pa jet and split-flow amplitude area; heavy rainfall appearance area had a good correspondingrelationship with the TBB<-52℃ range and the ground convergence line; heavy rainfall center was in negativecenter with TBB values below-52℃.更多还原