【摘要】 基于102个国家1995~2015年的面板数据,本文实证分析了贸易条件对实际汇率的影响,发现汇率制度和贸易开放度会影响贸易条件对实际汇率的效果。在浮动汇率制国家,贸易条件改善会导致实际汇率升值,而在非浮动汇率制国家贸易条件对实际汇率影响不显著。在贸易开放度低的国家,贸易条件改善会导致实际汇率升值;相反在贸易开放度高的国家,贸易条件改善会导致实际汇率贬值。因此,各国在制定贸易政策和汇率政策时要充分考虑本国汇率制度和贸易开放度的实际情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the macroeconomic data of 102 countries from 1995 to 2015,this paper analyzes the impact of the terms of trade on the real exchange rate.The empirical results show that the effect of the terms of trade on the real exchange rate is heterogeneous across countries.In the countries with floated exchange rate regime,an improvement of the terms of trade will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate,while in the countries with fixed exchange rate regime,the impact is not significant.Besides,the empirical results indicate the impacts are different across countries with different openness.In countries with low openness,the income effect is more important;on the other hand,in countries with high openness,substitution effect dominates.This paper suggests that countries should give full consideration to the exchange rate regime and the degree of openness when their policy makers make the exchange rate and trade policies decision.更多还原