【摘要】 针对突发事件具有的不确定性,计雷提出了动态网络博弈技术。在此基础上,针对群体性事件同时具有事态发展的高度不确定性和社会冲突的矛盾对抗性两个特征,将动态博弈网络技术与讨价还价理论相结合,得出了事态演化的均衡路径。首先,分别构建了政府和周边民众各自认知下的动态博弈网络结构,并分析了各自的均衡路径。然后,在信息对称的情况下通过讨价还价模型的M-P解法,分析了政府和周边民众进行折衷达到双方均可接受的均衡路径,即政府建设PX项目以实现经济的增长同时尽量减小群体性突发事件的影响程度,而周边民众希望以自己最小的投入将PX项目的影响程度降到最低。最后,结合大连PX事件进行了案例分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 In view of the uncertainty of the unexpected event,the dynamic network game technology is put forward by Mr. Ji Lei. On the basis of that,in view of the two characteristics of highly uncertain and social conflict which group events have,this paper combined the dynamic game network technology with bargaining theory and then got the equilibrium path of the situation evolution. First of all,this paper constructed the dynamic game network structure of the government and the surrounding people under their cognition respectively and analysed the respective equilibrium path. After that,the paper analysed the equilibrium path which the government and the surrounding people compromise to reach and which was acceptable to both parties in the case of information symmetry through M- P solution of bargaining model. The governments build the PX project to achieve economic growth while minimizing the impact of mass incidents,and the surrounding people minimize the extent of the impact of the PX project with their own minimal investment. Finally,a case study of Dalian PX event was carried out.更多还原