【摘要】 分析道路交通事故统计中的交通事故数、死亡人数和受伤人数,并且将这三种统计数据和某地区的机动车辆数和机动车驾驶人数相结合,分别得到万车交通事故数和万人死亡人数和万人受伤人数,建立信息熵模型(information entropy model)对以上数据进行分析研究,从而得出评价交通安全程度的指标.这种方法突破了以往仅停留在万车死亡人数的指标上,且以往的研究方法还需采用专家评价法或德尔菲等定性评价方法,此评价方法对道路交通安全的分析更客观.最后以北京和天津近三年的交通事故统计数据为案例进行分析,研究结果表明:2012年至2014年间北京道路交通安全评价指标主要以交通事故起数认定所在年的道路交通安全状况,天津道路交通安全评价指标主以交通事故造成的受伤人数认定所在年的道路交通安全状况,且北京三个指标的G_i均高于天津,因此北京交通安全水平要低于天津.更多还原

【Abstract】 The number of road traffic accidents,the number of deaths and injuries was analyzed,and combined the data with the number of motors and the number of motors drivers,respectively obtained the number of traffic accidents per 10 thousand vehicles,mortality per 10 thousand vehicles drivers and the number of injured per 10 thousand vehicles drivers.Establishing information entropy model to analyze the above data,then obtained the index of evaluating traffic safety grade.The method is a breakthrough which stayed on mortality per 10 thousand vehicles in the past,and traditional methods need to expert evaluation method or Delphi method,so the method of in the paper is more objective.Finally,as a case of Beijing and Tianjin traffic accident statistics in recent years to analyze,The result shows that the traffic accident number is as main the evaluation index of Beijing,and the number of injured is as main the evaluation index of Tianjin.Furthermore,Gi of Beijing is higher than Tianjin,so the traffic safety degree in Beijing is lower than Tianjin.更多还原