【摘要】 "十二五"期间,湖北等七省市陆续启动碳排放交易试点.碳排放交易体系的引入,会在短期内造成覆盖行业的边际成本上升,从而对行业利润造成影响.通过构建理论分析框架,分析行业受碳排放交易体系影响的具体机理,并建立起古诺多寡头垄断模型,量化分析不同情景下湖北省碳交易试点对电力、水泥、有色金属和钢铁四大高耗能行业的经济利润的影响.研究结果表明,在湖北省目前的碳配额价格水平和免费配额分配比例下,四大高耗能行业的利润降幅均不到1%,受到的短期经济影响很小.敏感性分析显示,行业利润变化率对免费配额比例的变化较为敏感.四大高耗能行业中有色金属行业受到的短期经济影响最强,在未来逐步加强碳排放总量控制的过程中需要特别关注.更多还原

【Abstract】 During the 12 th Five-year Plan,Hubei and six other provinces and cites have launched pilot carbon emissions trading schemes. The introduction of carbon emissions trading system leads to the change of marginal cost and has an economic impact on the industries,especially on high energy-consuming industries in the short term. By constructing the theoretical framework,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of carbon emissions trading system on industries. Besides,it establishes a multi-oligopoly Cournot model and make a quantitative analysis of the economic impact of Hubei pilot carbon emission trade on electricity,cement,steel and non-ferrous industries under different scenarios. The results show that the profit of the four energy-intensive industries has a decrease less than1% and the short-term economic impact on the industries is very slight. Sensitive analysis shows the profit change rate of industry is highly sensitive to the proportion of free quota allocation. Hubei province has the greatest economic impact on ferrous metal industry among the four industries in the short term. Nonferrous metal industry requires special attention in the process of gradually tightening carbon emissions control in the future.更多还原