【摘要】 目的评价气象因素在湖北省本地疟疾流行中的作用。方法收集2004-2009年湖北省月疟疾发病率资料和月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温、月平均相对湿度,月降雨量和月降雨天数。运用Spearman等级相关分析湖北省疟疾发病率与气象因素的相关性,采用逐步回归分析法筛选影响疟疾发病率气象因素。结果湖北省2004-2009年的疟疾发病率周期性变化与气温相关指标和降雨量的相关性较为显著,相关系数多在0.7左右。应用逐步回归分析得到的拟合模型为:Y′=-3.862+0.013 Mean T_-01-0.002 Min T_-2,模型决定系数为0.781。结论气象因素能够影响本地疟疾的流行,应用拟合方程能预测湖北省疟疾流行趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective The effect of meteorological factors on local malaria prevalence in Hubei province was evaluated.Methods Monthly malaria cases and meteorological factors including monthly mean temperature, maximum temperature,minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and rainfall days from 2004 to 2009 were collected in Hubei province. The correlation between malaria incidence and meteorological factors was analyzed using Spearman rank correlation analysis.The meteorological factors influencing the incidence of malaria were selected using stepwise regression analysis method.Results The periodical changes of malaria incidence was obviously correlated with temperature-related indicators and rainfall in Hubei province during 2004-2009. The correlation coefficient was about 0.7. By stepwise regression analysis, the equation was established: Y′=-3.862+0.013 Mean T_-01-0.002 Min T_-2, R²=0.781. Conclusion The meteorological factors could affect the epidemic of local malaria, and the epidemic trend of local malaria incidence could be predicted by the stepwise regression equation in Hubei province.更多还原