【摘要】 我国的居民消费需求不足问题仍然是当前亟须解决的问题,需要进行宏观经济调控加以管理。从具体的传导机制看,货币政策对居民消费影响的强度与金融市场的发展程度有关,因而研究我国的货币政策对居民消费的影响,需要结合我国金融市场发展的不同阶段。借助Chow突变点检验,将我国的金融市场区分为两个不同阶段,利用VAR模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,分析了在两个不同阶段货币政策对我国居民消费的影响。结果显示,在金融市场相对完善的阶段,货币政策对我国居民消费影响的正向强度更大,时间也更持久。更多还原

【Abstract】 The low household consumption demand is still a tough issue calling for macro-economic management. From the perspective of specific transmission mechanism, the Central Bank promotes private consumption through financial markets. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the degree of financial market development in China to study the effects of monetary policies on private consumption. By making use of Chow threshold testing, combined with VAR models, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, two different stages of the financial market development are set up and the effects of different monetary policies in the two stages are analyzed. The results show that the positive effects of monetary policy on household consumption are greater and more sustainable when the financial market is in relatively complete stage.更多还原