【摘要】 为客观、准确地评估舰船的生命力水平,结合毁伤树、随机过程、模糊度、经验层次法、马尔科夫链等系统工程技术,建立了基于模糊随机理论的舰船易损性评估模型。对多型舰船在不同武器毁伤环境下的易损性进行评估与分析。分析结果表明,由于兼顾了舰船毁伤的随机性与模糊性,评估模型能够较为合理地反映舰船毁伤的可能性和破坏度,从而提高了评估结果的可信度和准确性。所建立的评估模型可作为舰船在各阶段设计和作战使用时的易损性评估与分析工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 The vulnerability assessment model of naval ship is established based on the fuzzy-random theory,which can evaluate the survivability level of naval ship objectively and accurately. The theory is combined with damage tree,random process,fuzzy-set,analysis hierarchy process,Markov-chain,and other system engineering technology. The assessment model is used for the analysis and evaluation of multi-type naval ships in different damage environment. The research result shows that the assessment model can reflect reasonably the probability and damage degree of ships under consideration of fuzzy and randomness,and the reliability and veracity of assessment results are improved. The proposed model can be used as a tool of vulnerability assessment and analysis of naval ships in design.更多还原