【摘要】 通过对湖州2001-2012年共12a小麦赤霉病发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析,选择影响湖州小麦赤霉病发生的气象因子气温、降水、湿度、日照等,考虑前期气象条件,通过统计分析方法,建立了小麦赤霉病发生气象条件等级预报模型。用本地气象台发布的未来10d天气预报结论,结合前期天气实况,对未来10d小麦赤霉病发生气象条件等级进行预报。预报模型紧密联系预报产品特点和预报服务实际,实用性较强。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper compared the occurrence rates of wheat scab and their related meteorologic data in Huzhou dis-trict from 2001 to 2012,and identified an internal relation between wheat scab occurrence and meteorologic condi-tion,by analyzing several crucial meteorologic factors,including temperature,rainfall,humidity and sunshine. Weconstructed a powerful meteorologic forecast model to forecast wheat scab occurrence grades,which is easy and pre-cise in forecasting wheat scab occurrence grades in the next 10 days by adding the parameters of weather report con-clusion,current weather condition into this model. This forecast model is powerful and practicable because it is closeto characteristics of forecast products and application.更多还原