【摘要】 目的探讨大气污染物浓度对北京市门头沟区煤工尘肺患者住院死亡率的影响。方法收集2013年4月—2014年5月期间北京市门头沟区两家医院的煤工尘肺患者的每月死亡人数和每月出院人次数,以及该期间内大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2的浓度(μg/m3)。采用Eviews 8软件,以煤工尘肺患者I-HMR为因变量,大气污染物浓度为自变量拟合分布滞后模型,确定滞后期和阿尔蒙系数,根据R2、AIC、SC以及F检验的结果确定最优模型。结果研究期间内,煤工尘肺患者的住院死亡率在不同月份呈现明显的波动,4种大气污染物(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2)的浓度的变化趋势基本保持一致,住院死亡率及污染物浓度没有明显的上升或下降趋势。单因素分析发现,当污染物为PM10、SO2、NO2时所构建的分布滞后模型无统计学意义;当污染物为PM2.5时滞后期为9 a,模型有统计学意义。多因素分析发现,构建PM2.5、SO2、NO2与住院死亡率的模型有统计学意义,PM2.5滞后期为7 a。结论 PM2.5对煤工尘肺患者的住院死亡率有独立和联合作用,且存在一定的滞后效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective]To explore the effect of atmospheric pollutants concentration on the in-hospital mortality rate(I-HMR) of coal worker’s pneumoconiosis(CWP) in Mentougou District of Beijing City.[Methods]The data of monthly number of death, patients discharged from hospital was collected from 2 hospitals in Mentougou District from April 2013-May 2014. And the corresponding concentration(μg/m3)of 4 components of air pollutants(PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2) was collected. Distributed lag model of air pollutants was constructed to determine the lag and Almon coefficient, and the optimum model was determined according to the R2, AIC, SC and the F-test.[Results]Monthly I-HMR of CWP fluctuated significantly during this study. The trend of variation of the 4 air pollutants(PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2)was similar. IHMR and concentration of pollutants had no apparent upward or downward trend. Univariate analysis found that only PM2.5had statistically significant effect on I-HMR, and the lag effect was 9 a. Multivariate analysis revealed that when PM2.5, SO2, NO2 had statistically significant effect on I-HMR, the lag period of PM2.5changed to be 7 a. [Conclusion]The concentration of PM2.5has both independent and combined influence on the I-HMR, with a certain lag effect.更多还原