【摘要】 使用正负20%的降水距平作为指标将宁夏50年来(1961—2011年)18个气象测站的降水资料进行统计分析,基于灾害信息预测理论中的对称性原理及可公度方法,对宁夏干旱灾害进行分析和趋势判断,得出宁夏未来干旱灾害的可能发生年份。研究结果表明,50年来宁夏旱灾的发生具有时间对称性特征,2015年宁夏发生旱灾的信号最强。该研究旨在丰富对称性方法的灾害趋势判断案例,以期为宁夏防灾减灾提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper adds up and analyzes the meteorological data coming from 18 weather stations in last 50years( 1961—2013) in Ningxia,useing plus-minus 20% precipitation anomaly as the index to educe the year drought and flood happened in last 50 years and analyze and make trend judgment of the drought based on the symmetry and commensurable method of information prediction theory. As a result,the drought is characterized by periodicity and symmetry,2015 is in great possibility of being a drought year in Ningxia. The research focuses on enriching the calamity trend judgment cases of symmetry method so as to provide references for Ningxia’s prevention and reduction of calamities.更多还原