【摘要】 参选率是选举研究的重要主题,也是政治参与研究领域的重要内容。在我国现阶段,县级人大代表选举是选民能直接参与的最高层级选举。对选民参选率的现状和变化趋势进行研究,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。以来自北京的连续五次县级选后调查资料为基础,描述县级人大代表选举中选民投票率的发展变迁轨迹,分析其变化趋势及其影响因素,我们发现,近20年来,北京选民的投票率呈现显著下降趋势,明确表示"不想去"的选民在未投票选民中所占比率持续上升;阶层、政治讨论网、政体支持、教育、性别和年龄均对选民是否投票存在显著影响。在这里,投票率的调查和统计有待完善,相关部门也应改变投票率越高越民主的观念,但更重要的是要采取有效措施规范选举组织工作,从而提高选民参与投票的积极性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The voting rate is an important theme of the election-related researches,and an important part of political participation research. In the present stage,the county-level NPC elections are the highest level for voters’ direct participation. The study on the status and trends of voter participation rate is of important theoretical and practical value. Based on the survey data of five consecutive elections on the level of county in Beijing,this paper describes the trajectory of development and changes for the voting rate of County Deputy Election and analyzes their trends and influencing factors. We found that in nearly 20 years,the voting rate in Beijing showed a significant downward trend. The percentage of the voters who made it clear that"I do not want to go"continues to rise among the voters who did not vote the electorate. Class,political discussion networks,government support,education,gender and age have significant impact on whether the electorate votes. Here,the surveys and statistics of voting rate need to be improved. The relevant departments should also change the concept that the higher the voting rate the more democratic the society is,but more important is to take effective measures to regulate the election organization,thus increasing the enthusiasm to vote.更多还原