【摘要】 在构建一个包含房地产市场和普通消费品市场两个市场的新凯恩斯主义随机动态一般均衡模型之后,基于国内外关于中国经济的理论与经验研究中获得的结构性参数对其进行校准。在校准的基础上,考察了外生技术冲击、偏好冲击、货币政策冲击以及短暂的一次性房价加成冲击,对于普通消费品产出、住宅产出、通货膨胀、住宅通胀、实际工资与失业等变量的影响。研究发现,相对于技术冲击与偏好冲击,货币政策冲击和一次性房价加成冲击对于主要宏观经济变量具有更大且持续性更长的效应。因此,稳定货币政策和控制房价加成能够减弱房地产市场波动对宏观经济周期的不良影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper constructs a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the two markets: a real estate market and an ordinary consumer market, which is to be calibrated according to the structural parameters gained in the researches both at home and abroad of the theories and experiences of Chinese economy. On the basis of this calibration, this paper studies the effect of exogenous technology impact, preference shock, monetary policy shock and short-time one-off housing price addition impact on such variables as the ordinary consumer goods output, housing output, inflation, housing inflation, real wages and unemployment. It is found in the study that with respect to the technical impact and the preference shock, monetary policy shock and the impact of one-off housing price addition have a greater effect and longer duration on the main macroeconomic variables. Therefore, to stabilize monetary policy and to control the housing prices addition can weaken the harmful impact on the macroeconomic cycle.更多还原