【摘要】 目的:了解海门市5岁以下儿童死亡状况、死因顺位及变化趋势,预测海门市2013~2015年5岁以下儿童死亡趋势,为公共卫生政策制定提供参考。方法:对海门市2003~2012年5岁以下儿童死亡信息进行流行病学描述,率的比较用χ2检验,运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测未来3年5岁以下儿童死亡率。结果:2003~2012年海门市5岁以下儿童平均死亡率为7.20‰,死因前5位依次为先天性心脏病、其他先天畸形变性和染色体异常、起源于围生期的其他情况、溺亡、新生儿产伤和窒息,2003~2012年婴儿、新生儿以及5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势。灰色预测模型结果显示:到2015年5岁以下男女儿童死亡率分别为4.01‰和2.42‰,婴儿死亡率为1.62‰,新生儿死亡率为1.10‰。结论:继续加强基层医疗卫生机构孕产妇保健和儿童救治能力建设,强化对孕产妇的健康管理、健康教育和对儿童意外伤害的防范,可以有效降低5岁以下儿童死亡率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To understand death status,rank order of causes of death and change regularity of children under five years in Haimen,predict the trend of death of children under five years old in Haimen from 2003 to 2012,and provide reference for making public health policies. Methods: The death information of children under five years old in Haimen from 2003 to 2012 were described by epidemiological method,chi-square test was used to compare mortality rate,and the grey model GM( 1,1) was used to predict mortality rate of the children under 5 years old during the future three years. Results: The average mortality rate of children under five years old in Haimen from2003 to 2012 was 7. 20‰; the top five causes of death were congenital heart diseases,other congenital malformations and chromosomal abnormalities,other diseases originated in perinatal period,drown,birth injury and neonatal asphyxia. There was a decreasing trend in the mortality rates of infants,neonates and children under five years old from 2003 to 2012. The mortality rates of boys and girls under five years old predicted by the grey model were 4. 01‰ and 2. 42‰ in 2015,and the mortality rates of infants and neonates were 1. 62‰ and 1. 10‰,respectively. Conclusion: Maternal health care and child rescue should be strengthened in basic medical institutions,maternal health management,health education and prevention of accidental injuries to children should be reinforced to effectively reduce the mortality rate of children under five years old.更多还原