【摘要】 预测2020年的公共行政:第一,面对全球化挑战,国际协作将继续增多,未来对发展中国家的研究将会增多;第二,治理将是未来最流行的理论,协作治理更加需要;第三,公众参与的程度和层级会提高;第四,信息技术继续影响公共行政,强化治理;第五,政治和行政将更加融合,公共行政将更加需要包容和平衡彼此竞争的价值;第六,公共价值会更加流行,更加重视公共价值的研究;第七,重视"持续性",环境系统与经济和政治社会系统是相互依赖和重叠的关系,不能忽视环境系统的持续性;第八,公众的角色会变得更加重要,协商民主得到更多认同;第九,公私伙伴关系继续流行;重新强调"公共性";第十,实现战略管理和绩效管理的有机结合。中国的逻辑:推进中国治理能力现代化的主要路径是改进官僚制或推进政府的现代化;中国公共行政发展面临着现代性和后现代性双重任务,但要以现代性为主。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper attempts to predict the public administration in 2020.Facing the challenges of globalization,international collaboration will continue to increase and more research will be conducted of developing countries.Governance will become one of the most popular theories and there will be more needs for collaborative governance.The extent and degree of public participation will increase.Information technology will continue to affect public administration and strengthen governance.Politics and administration will be more integrated.Public administration will need more tolerance and balance in competing values.Public value will be more popular and more study will be conducted of it. More emphasis will be layed on sustainability. The interdependent and overlapping nature of the aspects of environmental,economic and social sustainability will become clearer.The public will play a more important role and deliberative democracy will get more recognition.Public-private partnerships will continue to be popular and there will be a renewed emphasis on "public".The best choice is to achieve the combination of strategic management and performance management.China’s logic:the main path for promoting the modernization of governance capacity is to reform bureaucracy or promote government modernization;the development of Chinese public administration is faced with the dual task of modernity and post-modernity,but with modernity as the main task.更多还原