【摘要】 利用JMA的JRA-55降雪量及CMIP5的6个模式模拟的降雪量资料,分析了东亚地区降雪量年变化特征及年际变化特征.结果表明:东亚地区降雪量在1958-2004年期间具有明显的年际变化特征及区域分布特征;降雪主要集中在11月至翌年的4月,这6个月中降雪量占年总降雪量的82%;年际变化特征呈现出一种波动变化略有增加的趋势,但是增加的幅度有所不同.从区域分布特征来看,东亚地区降雪主要分布在东北亚、青藏高原及新疆等3个区域.CMIP5的6个模式对东亚区域及其子区域东北亚、青藏高原、新疆1850-2004年降雪量年际变化特征的模拟差异较大.多模式集合预报的结果表现为,在过去155 a(1850-2004年)东亚区域降雪量呈现明显减小趋势,东北亚和青藏高原降雪量为波动略有减小趋势,新疆降雪量为明显增加趋势.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the annual and monthly variations of snow fall in East Asia are analyzed by using snow -falls simulated with CMIP5 model and JRA-55 annual solid precipitation time sequence. It is found that there were obvious annual variation and regional distribution characteristics during the period of 1958- 2004. The snow fall concentrated in the period from November to next April mainly,accounting for 82% of the annual snow fall; the annual variation showed a fluctuant increasing tendency,with different increment; spatially,snow -fall concentrated in three regions: Northeast Asia,Tibetan Plateau and Xinjiang. The snow falls simulated by six CMIP5 models had some spatial differences in the East Asia and the three sub-regions during 1850- 2004.Temporally,the simulated snow fall presented an evident decreasing tendency in East Asia during the period from1850 to 2004,with a slight decreasing tendency or an undulation in Northeast Asia and the Tibetan Plateau and an evident increasing tendency in Xinjiang.更多还原