【摘要】 基于冬小麦干热风发生指标,构建了冬小麦干热风的发生强度指标,反演了华北平原冬小麦主产区1961年以来干热风的发生规律。通过分析发现,河北中南部、山东西部和北部、河南北部等冬小麦区属于干热风高发区,而进入20世纪80年代以来,干热风发生呈减少趋势。利用冬小麦观测站的气象资料、产量及其结构资料和发育期资料等数据,构建了包括干热风强度风险指数、综合抗灾能力指数的干热风风险评估指标体系,建立了干热风风险评估模型,对华北冬小麦主产区的干热风风险进行了评估,制作了华北平原冬小麦区干热风风险区划评估图。评估结果显示,河北东南部和山东西北部为干热风影响高风险区,而河南南部、山东东部、河北东部为干热风影响低风险区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the index of the occurrence of dryhot wind in winter wheat region,an index of its occurrence intensity was established and the occurrence rule of dry-hot wind was inverted for the main winter wheat producing areas in the North China Plain since 1961.According to the results,the winter wheat area of the middle and south of Hebei,the west and north of Shandong and the north of Henan are the high risk zones of dry-hot wind,and the occurrence has reduced since the beginning of 1980’ s.Thus,using the winter wheat observatory meteorological data,production structure material,yield,growth phase and other data,a dry-hot wind risk assessment model was established after the construction of the dry-hot wind risk evaluation index system that cover the dry-hot wind strength risk index and integrated disaster resisting capability index of the winter wheat.The dry-hot risk in main winter wheat producing areas of north China was then assessed using the model,and the dry-hot wind risk zoning assessment map was made for the areas.Assessment results show that,southeast of Hebei and northwest of Shandong are areas with high risk of the dry-hot wind influence,while south of Henan,east of Shandong and Hebei are low risk areas.更多还原