【摘要】 在区分低碳经济与低碳发展的基础上,构建了一套低碳发展指标体系,并采用整合的FAHP-TOPSIS法对我国30个省区进行评价研究。结果表明:(1)该指标体系是实用且有效的,可以成功的用来评价一个区域的低碳发展水平。(2)整合的FAHP-TOPSIS法引入了模糊数集,能有效处理专家评估过程中的模糊性,评估结果也符合实际。(3)2003年到2008年,上海低碳发展水平有所下降,下降率为1.91%;其余各省区均在增长,浙江增长最大,北京增长最小,两者增长率分别为29.73%和0.38%。(4)北京一直拥有相对最高的低碳发展水平,而辽宁和江西一直分别处于第6和10位。宁夏、青海、甘肃、贵州及河南则一直依次处于低碳发展水平的倒数前5位,且位次不变。最后,分析了评估结果的合理性及不确定性并提出了一些提高省域低碳发展水平的可行途径及未来可进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the low-carbon economy( LCE) was,firstly,brought out by the Department of Trade and Industry( DTI)in UK in 2003,the issues related to the concept of low carbon( LC) have attracted more and more attentions at home and abroad. The low-carbon development( LCD) is one of the hottest issues in the academic circles. However,people remain to have some controversial viewpoints on this topic of LCD up to now. For example,some people think the LCD should guarantee the growth of Gross Domestic Product( GDP),but some others think the LCD could leave it out. Therefore,in this paper,the two concepts of LCE and LCD were,at the first step,distinguished based on some published literature.Then,according to the distinguished result above,the indicators’ system for evaluating the LCD levels of different regions was constructed,which contains 5 second-layer’s indicators and 10 third-layer’s indicators. As the unavailability of data,some provinces were omitted,and there were 30 provinces altogether were taken into the numerical case. In the empirical research process,a two-step methodology of combining the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process( FAHP) with the Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution( TOPSIS) method is proposed. The FAHP was,firstly,used to compute the indicators’ weights of the 30 provinces’ LCD levels,and then the TOPSIS method used these weights as its own input weights to complete the whole calculation process. The results show that:( 1) the index system is a very practical and effective evaluation tool. It can successfully help people to evaluate the LCD level of a region.( 2) The integrated FAHPTOPSIS method can effectively deal with the fuzziness,which was coming from the process of expert’s assessment,because the fuzzy number’ set was drawn into it. The results acquired are reasonable and consistent with the reality,which further prove the reliability of the method itself.( 3) From 2003 to 2008,the LCD level of Shanghai has a slightly decreasing change. The percentage of the decline is 1.91%. All the rest 29 provinces have the increasing trend. Among them,Zhejiang has the largest growth,and Beijing has the least growth. The increasing percentages of the two regions are 29. 73% and0. 38%,respectively.( 4) Overall,the top 10 provinces of the LCD level in 2003 are still in the top 10 positions in 2008.Among the ten,Beijing has always had the highest LCD level relatively,while Liaoning and Jiangxi have kept at the 6th and 10th positions,respectively,but the rankings of the other seven provinces are changed from 2003 to 2008. However,the LCD levels of Ningxia,Qinghai,Gansu,Guizhou and Henan have been successively in the reciprocal five positions,and their rankings are unchanged. Finally,the rationality and uncertainty of the results by using the FAHP-TOPSIS method were analyzed. Some feasible directions for future studies are put forward,and some preferable policy suggestions to improve the provincial LCD level were proposed. These advices contain: strengthen the transformation of energy-saving technology;increase the proportion of renewable-energy consumption; accelerate the construction of the new urbanization and the compact city; implement the system of carbon emissions’ total amount control,quota allocation and trading; extend an existing reforestation program,and so on.更多还原