【摘要】 构建指数模型和多元线性回归模型2种驱动力模型预测耕地保有量,并通过对比分析,最终确定耕地保有量,校验土地利用总体规划确定的预期性耕地保有量指标.结合沈阳市的实际情况,预测耕地保有量结果分别为18.62万hm2和15.54万hm2.最终综合考虑不同经济发展阶段土地利用的特点,结合城市总体规划的建设用地控制目标,在评析各种耕地保有量预测驱动力模型优缺点的基础上,确定2020年的耕地保有量应为18.00万hm2.最终得出沈阳市土地利用总体规划确定的预期性耕地保有量指标符合未来沈阳市土地可持续利用的要求.更多还原

【Abstract】 Combined with the actual situation of Shenyang city,index model and multiple linear regression model are constructed to predict the amount of cultivated land,and the predicted results are 186 200 hm2 and 155 400 hm2 respectively.Comprehensively considering land-use characteristics in different stages of economic development,in combination with construction land control objectives of overall urban planning,based on the comment of advantages and disadvantages of various driving force models to predict cultivated land amount,the amount of cultivated land in 2020 are determined to be 180 000 hm2.Finally it is concluded that the prospective cultivated land quantity indicators determined by overall land use planning meet the requirements of future sustainable land use in Shenyang city.更多还原