【摘要】 [目的]利用已有的流感监测数据制定福田区流感监测基线和预警曲线,进行早期预测。[方法]采用2005～2009年两所医院的流感样病例百分比监测数据(ILI%),通过统计分析制定基线和预警曲线。[结果]福田区流感基线值为4.10%,预警值为7.95%,警戒曲线反映的异常波动与2010年实际的暴发疫情及病原分离结果相一致。[结论]福田区的流感监测预警曲线具有较好的灵敏性和准确性,能对流感疫情进行早期预警。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective]To build the early warning curve based on influenza surveillance data of Futian.[Methods]According to the weekly influenza-like illness consultation rate(ILI%)of two sentinel hospitals in Futian from 2005 to 2009.Analyzed the results,made the baseline and early warning curve of influenza.[Results]The baseline value of Futian was 4.10%,and the warning value was 7.95%.The simulative early warning signal was approximately consistent with the actual results of isolation and outbreak in 2010.[Conclusion]The early warning curve of influenza has a high sensitivity and accuracy,and it can be early warning of influenza outbreaks.更多还原