当前我国外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的实证分析

【摘要】 本文基于外汇储备的视角,选取2008年9月-2011年3月我国外汇储备、全国居民消费物价指数和货币供应量的月度数据进行实证分析,发现我国外汇储备、全国居民消费物价指数和货币供应量三者之间存在长期稳定的关系,并且相互之间存在因果关系。近年来外汇储备剧增对物价水平起着直接和间接作用,但是直接作用非常不明显,因此,外汇储备增加不是本轮通胀的主要原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the perspective of foreign exchange reserve,this paper selects the monthly data about our country’s foreign exchange reserves,the index of o ur country’s s consumer price,and money supply from September,2008 to March, 2011 to make empirical analysis.It is found the there are a long-term and stab le relationship among three variables of our country’s foreign exchange reserve,national consumer price index,and money supply,and a causal relationship amo ng them.In recent years,rapid increase of foreign exchange reserve has direct and indirect influences on price level,but direct effect is very not obvious.T herefore,the increase of foreign exchange reserve is not the main cause of the currency inflation this cycle.更多还原