【摘要】 依据典型年份实际调查资料和以往研究成果,采用地下水均衡方法,定量对比分析了黑河拟建水利工程对下游地区地下水资源变化趋势,并利用Visual Modflow三维地下水非稳定流软件系统模型对下游盆地未来20a(2008—2028年)地下水位及其生态环境变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明:在拟建工程实施20a后黑河下游地下水位总体上处于下降趋势,但下降幅度呈逐年减少状态直至趋于新的动态平衡.金塔-鼎新盆地地下水位下降幅度最大的地段是黑河沿岸为0.51～0.87m,但由于人工农业绿洲补充,故生态环境不会有大的改变.额济纳盆地地下水位下降幅度最大的地段是古日乃及外围,分别为1.0m以上和0.5～1.0m,将引起植被的衰亡和种群的更替变化;大部分地段地下水位下降幅度介于0.0～0.50m之间,对现有的生态与环境影响不显著;桃来三达-额济纳旗以北地下水位呈现上升趋势,上升幅度为0.10～0.87m,东居延海一带上升幅度大于0.87m,这一地区植被长势趋于良好,植被覆盖率会有所增加,将形成围绕海子的天然绿洲.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this article,the method of groundwater balance is used to quantitatively compare and analyze the changing trend of the groundwater resources in the lower reaches of the Heihe River,based on a typical year of observation and previous researches.The software Visual Modflow 3D for unsteady groundwater flow system is also used to forecast the changing trend of groundwater level and ecological environment in the lower reaches in the next twenty years(2008-2028),before and after the proposed water conservancy project completed.The results show groundwater level in a downward trend in general,approximating to a new dynamic equilibrium by degree.In the basin of Jinta-Dingxin,the maximum groundwater level decline,0.51~0.87 m,is located in the waterfront along the river.However,owing to the supplementary of artificial agriculture oasis ecological,the environment will not change so much.In Egin basin,the maximum groundwater level decline area is located in Gurinai(1.0 m) and its periphery(0.5~1.0 m),where vegetation decline and fall,as well as population supersedure,can be seen;in most of the remaining areas,the groundwater level decline is between 0.0~0.50 m,where significant impact on ecology and environment has not been seen;groundwater level is rising in the north of Taolaisanda and Ejin Banner,where the water level rising by 0.10~0.87 m;in the east of Juyanhai Lake,the rising rate is more than 0.87 m,where vegetation growing is good,and the vegetation coverage is increasing and natural oases are forming around the lake.更多还原