【摘要】 2009年我国政府提出:2020年碳排放强度在2005年的基础上降低40%～45%,这是我国应对全球气候变化的重要举措.依据环境技术经济学的有关理论,运用1995—2007年的有关统计数据,建立了我国大陆30个省区(省、市、自治区)碳排放环境学习曲线(ELC),并依据ELC模型预测了碳排放强度和碳减排潜力.结果发现,按照过去12 a的自然趋势,2020年各省区的碳减排潜力为15%～58%,全国碳减排总潜力为30.6%.从"需求"与"可能"出发,将9.4%的缺口按比例分配到9个高碳省区,并依此重新计算各省区碳减排目标和分担率.更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2009,the Chinese government announced that the carbon emissions intensity of the year 2020 would be reduced by 40%-45% compared with the year 2005.This is an important measure to cope with global climate change.Based on some environmental technology economics theories and relevant statistical data between 1995 and 2007,Environmental Learning Curves of carbon emissions in 30 provinces were built in China mainland,and the carbon emissions intensity and carbon mitigation potential were forecasted.Results show that,according to the natural trend of the last 12 years,the carbon mitigation capacity of the 30 studied provinces is 15%-58% in 2020.The total number for the whole country is 30.6%.The 9.4% gap was distributed in proportion among nine high-carbon provinces on the basis of "demand" and "possibility".The target of carbon mitigation and contribution rates were then recalculated,providing a reference for the allocation of carbon mitigation among different regions in 2020.更多还原