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Weibull分布下基于MLE的红外发光二极管寿命预测

Life Prediction for Infrared LED Based on MLE under Weibull Distribution

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【作者】 张建平; 武文丽; 朱文清;

【Author】 ZHANG Jianping1,2,WU Wenli1,ZHU Wenqing3(1.School of Thermal Power and Environmental Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,CHN;2.School of Mechanical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,CHN;3.Key Laboratory of Advanced Display and System Applications of Ministry of Education,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200072,CHN)

【机构】 上海电力学院能源与环境工程学院; 上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院; 上海大学新型显示技术及应用集成教育部重点实验室;

【摘要】 为了对红外发光二极管(LED)恒定及步进应力加速寿命试验的数据进行统计分析,应用Weibull分布函数描述了其寿命分布,利用极大似然法(MLE)及其迭代流程图估计出形状参数和尺度参数,通过最小二乘法确定了红外LED加速寿命方程,对红外LED寿命是否符合威布尔分布进行了Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验,并利用自行开发的寿命预测软件计算出平均寿命和中位寿命。数值结果表明,红外LED的寿命服从Weibull分布,加速寿命方程符合逆幂定律,所估计出的红外LED的寿命对生产厂商和用户有很强的指导意义。

【Abstract】 In order to make statistic analysis on constant-stress and step-stress accelerated life test data for the infrared LED,the Weibull function was applied to describe its life distribution,and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate the shape parameters and scale parameters.Furthermore,the accelerated life equation was determined by the least square method,the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the life of the infrared LED meets the Weibull distribution or not,and self-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the midian life.The numerical results verified that the infrared LED life submits to the Weibull distribution,and the accelerated life equation meets completely the inverse power law.The estimated life information of the infrared LED can provide some significant guideline to its manufacturers and customers.

【基金】 上海市自然科学基金项目(09ZR1413000);上海市高等学校本科教育高地建设项目;上海市科委重点科技攻关计划项目(08160510600)
  • 【文献出处】 半导体光电 ,Semiconductor Optoelectronics , 编辑部邮箱 ,2011年01期
  • 【分类号】TN214
  • 【被引频次】7
  • 【下载频次】338
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