【摘要】 以长台溪流域10座小Ⅱ型以上水库的安全认定和社会经济调查为基础,通过单坝失事风险分析、失事后果评估计算,进行单坝的洪灾风险评价;进而从流域整体的角度,考虑库间影响,洪灾风险的传递、积聚效应,量化分析全流域各水库的洪灾综合风险。在此基础上,进行系统内各座水坝洪灾综合风险的大小排序,转化为除险加固的优先次序,为后续加固决策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the results of safety identifications and socioeconomic investigations for 10 tiny reservoirs in Changtai River Basin,East China,their respective risk analysis,wreck consequence assessment,and flood disaster risk estimation was performed.Furthermore,the group of reservoirs was abstracted into a directional system,which the transmission,diversion,and accumulation effect of flood disaster risk,even the system’s reaction to one or more dam-failure events could be meditated.When the interaction of reservoirs is considered,the group of reservoirs’ integrated risks evaluation model will finally be established.And then according to the model,every few dams’ strengthening priority level in the system can be collated,which can be looked upon as foundation of strengthening decision.更多还原