【摘要】 针对国内外中小企业财务困境实证研究的不足,本文提出中小企业财务危机判别模型。首先,针对不平衡抽样问题,修正Logistic回归截距,实证结果表明新方法改善了模型"取伪"错误率高居不下的情况;第二,将主成分分析与Logistic回归结合,以更少的指标更好地解决了小样本和解释变量多重共线性等问题。基于实证结果,笔者认为我国中小企业基本符合Luoma等人提出的财务困境渐进规律,并据此提出了针对中小企业特点的财务指标组合体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Empirical researches for small and medium-sized companies still remain in the early stage. This paper offers a financial distress prediction model for small and medium-sized companies. Two improvements have been made: to solve the problem of unbalanced sampling,we raise up a solution to correct the constant term in Logistic discriminate function,which helps to reduce the error of misclassifying ST companies; the combination of principle component and Logistic function can better solve the problem of small population and multicollinearity. In the end,we have managed to build up a new financial ratio system for small and medium-sized companies.更多还原