【摘要】 提出了适用于实际电力系统低频振荡概率稳定性分析的TLPA法,定义了稳定概率指标,给出了基于点估计法的指标计算方法。TLPA法能够在已知电网各种不确定性因素的概率分布条件下,通过很少的计算量就得到由于这些不确定性因素引发系统低频振荡的概率大小。对IEEE-16机系统以及实际的华中-华北互联电网的仿真结果表明:与蒙特卡罗法等传统方法相比,TLPA法能够得到同样精度的结果,同时计算量极大减少,因此可用于大电网低频振荡概率稳定性分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 A new two-point-estimation (TPE) based power system low-frequency-oscillation probability stability analysis method (TLPA) suitable for large scale power system is proposed in this paper. The probability stability index is defined. If the probability distributions of the uncertainties in the power system are known, the probability of occurring low-frequency-oscillation because of these uncertainties can be calculated out based on TPE by very less computation. The digital simulation results of the IEEE-16-generator power system and the Central China-North China interconnected bulk power system demonstrate that: the same precision with less computation can be achieved by TLPA comparing to Monte Carlo simulation. So it is practical for large scale power system.更多还原