【摘要】 流域未来洪水风险的情景分析,涉及到众多自然因素、人为因素以及这些因素之间复杂的相互作用关系。为构建未来洪水风险情景、开展未来预见研究,借鉴英国已有的研究经验,提出了流域未来洪水风险动因响应关系的定性分析方法,该方法有助于清楚地分析洪水灾害系统中各因素之间的关系、各因素影响洪水风险的作用机制,以及它们影响未来洪水风险的趋势。文中以太湖流域为研究对象,通过描述影响流域未来洪水风险的重要因素,建立起各因素之间的洪水风险动因响应关系,并判断了各因素影响未来洪水风险的重要性和不确定程度,从而为研究流域未来洪水风险提供了必要的基础信息。更多还原

【Abstract】 Scenario analysis for future flood risk in the Tai Lake Basin involves many natural and man-made factors,as well as complex relationship among them.To plot future flood risk scenario,it is necessary to identify key factors that have a great impact on flood risk and to understand the relationship among those factors.By learning from the available experience in UK,the authors proposed a concept and a method of qualitatively analyzing drivers and responses for future flood risk,which can be used for better studying the relations among the factors,the mechanism and the trend of future floods.Taking the Tai Lake Basin as an example,the relationship between drivers and responses in the flooding system is worked out based on a deep description of each factor and an estimation of importance and uncertainty of the drivers and responses of the future flood risk is made,which will provide valuable and elementary information for aftertime study on flood risk in the Tai Lake Basin.更多还原