【摘要】 利用中国31个省(市、区)1999-2007年的面板数据对中国住房市场投机行为进行了实证检验,重点分析全球性金融危机发生之后住宅价格中投机成分及其区域分布的变动趋势。研究结果表明:消费者适应性预期和投机行为在1999-2007年中国住房价格快速上涨的过程中起到了显著的作用。然而在金融危机的冲击下,真实需求的萎缩才是导致中国住房价格中投机成分比例增加的主要原因。与繁荣时期不同,2007年住房市场的区域差异更加明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the panel data set of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2007,we estimate the speculation in housing markets of China and study on how it has changed after global economy crisis exploded.Evidence shows that myopic expectation and speculation had been stimulating housing prices to go up.The impact of global economy crisis induced that the proportion of speculation in housing prices to increase and regional housing markets become more diverse.We also find the proportion of speculation has no remarkable relationship with housing price.Based on these conclusions,we propose some advices to ensure housing markets keep good condition.更多还原