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重庆市生态足迹时间序列动态特征及其驱动因子分析
Analysis on dynamical character of ecological footprint and its driving factors in Chongqing city
【摘要】 生态足迹是近年来广泛用于评价区域发展可持续性的重要方法。基于生态足迹计算模型,利用自然资源和能源消费的统计数据,对重庆市1997-2005年的人均生态足迹序列进行了计算;在此基础上,根据区域社会经济发展与生态足迹变化的作用机理选择了6个社会经济发展相关指标作为自变量,运用主成分回归方法,建立了人均生态足迹的驱动因子分析模型,揭示了驱动生态足迹序列变化的主要因素。计算结果显示,直辖以来,重庆市人均生态足迹总体呈上升趋势,由1997年的1.1244hm2增加到2005年的1.4903hm2,而由于耕地占用等原因,人均生态承载力却在逐年减少,从1997年的0.5075hm2减少到2005年的0.4652hm2,导致该地区人均生态赤字逐年扩大,呈相对不可持续发展状态。驱动力分析模型表明:重庆市社会经济发展对人均生态足迹增长具有强烈的驱动作用。直辖以来,一方面随着工业化、城镇化进程的加快以及消费水平的提升,人均生态足迹也相应同步增长;而另一方面,由于目前的产业和工业结构调整力度有限,因此它们尚未有效发挥降低区域生态足迹的作用。
【Abstract】 Ecological footprint (EF) method is a new prevailing approach to evaluate the sustainable status of region development. The time series of ecological footprint (EF) per capita form 1997 to 2005 was calculated by using the statistical consumption data of resource and energy in Chongqing based on EF Method. Then, a multivariate linear regression model was established to analyze the driving effects of socio-economic system on EF per capita, regarding EF per capita ecological footprint as dependent variable and six correlative socio-economic indices as independent variables. The results showed that EF per capita almost increased from 1.124 4 hm2 to 1.490 3 hm2, while ecological capcity (EC) per capita decreased from 0.507 5 hm2 to 0.465 2 hm2 due to the occupation of cultivated land, which resulted the ecological deficit (ED) of local city increased annually. The driving model indicates that socioeconomic development is a strong driving force for regional EF per capita. Since Chonqing became the Municipality directly administered under Chinese central government in 1997, industrialization and urbanization process in this region have speed up and consumption level upgraded swiftly, the EF per capita increased correspondently; on the other hand, due to the fact that industry especially secondary industry’ structure is still on the process of restructure and re-adjustment, therefore, they failed to decrease regional EF effectively.
【Key words】 ecological footprint; time series; principle component; driving factor;
- 【文献出处】 生态环境学报 ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences , 编辑部邮箱 ,2009年04期
- 【分类号】X22
- 【被引频次】37
- 【下载频次】616