【摘要】 对近四十五年来中国漠河的气温变化作了一个初步分析.根据中国漠河1961～2005年逐日平均、最高、最低气温资料,求得了相应的年均温、年均高温和年均低温,分别对它们进行了线性拟合,结果表明它们在这45年都有所升高,并且由t检验得出线性趋势都是显著的.之后用线性回归模型拟合了年均温与年均高温和年均低温的关系,得出了拟合方程,并由F检验说明了线性回归关系的显著性.最后又采用变系数回归模型的局部线性拟合方法拟合了年均温与年均高温和年均低温的变化关系,从而揭示了年均高温和年均低温对年均温的影响随时间变化的规律,对研究年均温升高的原因具有一定的参考意义.更多还原

【Abstract】 The preliminary analysis of temperature change in Mohe in China during the last 45 years has been made in this paper. According to information of daily averge, daily extreme high and low temperature in Mohe in China during 1961 to 2005, annual average, annual average high and low temperature are got correspondingly. They are carried out with linear fitting respectively. The result shows that they are all some ascending during recent 45 years, and that the linear trend by access of t-test are all notable. Then the relation among them is fitted by linear regression model. The fitting equation is got and the relation of linear regression is also notable by F-test. Finally, analysis on variations among them is discussed by mean of local linear fitting method of varying coefficient regression model. It reveals the law of variation along with time for annual average high and low temperature on annual average temperature.It is some reference meaning for discussing the reason for ascending of annual average temperature.更多还原