【摘要】 以宜昌市1996~2004年连续清查的第一手土地利用资料,用马氏链模型确定了土地利用类型的转移概率.在已有数据的基础上建立所有可能的模型,用这些模型对2004年的土地利用类型结果进行预测,把预测结果与实际值比较,进行误差分析,用误差率最小的模型作为预测模型,对宜昌市未来几年的土地利用过程进行了模拟分析和定量预测.结果表明:当前该地区的土地利用格局正处于一种耕地逐渐减少,居民点、工矿用地逐渐增加的变化状态,而且这种变化将持续很长时间.更多还原

【Abstract】 The transition probability matrix of land use is defined,using Markov,based on the analysis of land use actually and the first-hand data of the year 1996-2004.All possible models are built,which will be used to have a prediction on the land use of 2004.The paper gives an analysis on the predictive data,and chooses the good model as the prediction model,uses the choosed model to analyze and predict the land use change in future.The result shows that over a long period of time,the infield land area will decrease gradually and the area occupied by residence,factory and mine will increase day by day.更多还原