【摘要】 回顾和总结了当前防波堤项目的决策模型,介绍了效用理论的起源、发展和理论基础,提出了效用理论结合防波堤风险量化方法的新型风险决策模型。以某直立式防波堤的优化设计为例,将防波堤滑移失效概率、防波堤尺度、生命周期内的风险损失和预期收益、决策者风险态度等量化指标纳入决策系统,比较了费用最小化、费用-收益权衡和效用三种决策模型,探讨了优化设计重现期的确定。结果表明,决策者的风险态度将极大地影响防波堤方案的选择,而费用-收益模型实质上是效用模型的一种特殊情况,这凸显了效用模型的包容性和合理性。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper reviewed the existing risk-based decision-making models and proposed a new decision method for breakwater on the basis of the combination of utility theory and risk evaluation.In the third section,an design case of vertical breakwater was provided to derive the optimal return periods based on various decision models,in which some quantified variables,such as the failure probabilities of sliding,the cross sections of breakwater,the expected benefits or losses over the lifetime of breakwater and the risk preferences of decision-maker,are brought into the decision framework.The results indicated that the optimal return period of wave height was largely determined by the risk preferences of decision-maker.In addition,the cost-benefit model is essentially a special case of the utility model,which implies that the utility-based model is a more general form for breakwater decision-making.更多还原