【摘要】 运用空间自相关的全域指标和局域指标,分析1990年和2000年上海市域及中心城区两个年份的人口密度的Moran’s I和Getis’s G*值。结果表明:从市域的尺度上看,10年间,人口集聚增强,即城市高密度集聚、农村低密度集聚,中心城区及其内部出现的人口密度相对分散的趋势只是表现在城市内部,而市域内城市与农村之间的差异仍在不断扩大,表现为一种从农村向城市的向心型城市化过程,而且城市化还处于不断上升的阶段。从中心城区的尺度看,10年间,中心城区人口密度不断降低,城区核心人口绝对量持续减少,城区外缘绝对量持续增加,上海市城区具有明显的郊区化特点,空间上表现出一种离心型城市化的特点。研究结果的可借鉴性表明空间自相关的统计分析能更好地揭示出人口的分布模式、人口集聚及其变化的热点和内在机制,对于人口的合理布局方案、城市化政策制定等政府宏观决策具有意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the evolution of urban,distribution of population in Shanghai has been changing,which is already aroused universal attention and researcher’s interest.Based on the population statistic data on the scale of streets in 1990 and 2000,indexes such as Moran’s I and Getis’s G* were used to analyze space-time pattern of population distribution of Shanghai,including inter-outline road and the scope of urban districts.So,the hotspots,which took on acute characters in the distribution and variation of the population density,were explored from 1990 to 2000.The results show that population centralization is enhanced on the scale of urban districts from 1990 to 2000,high population density is in the urban districts and the low population density in the country.In the center of urban districts,population density is relatively dispersed,which direction is inside of the urban districts.But the discrepancy between urban and rural is increasingly enlarged,which is an urbanization pattern from rural area to urban districts and the process constantly rising.On the scale of the center of urban districts,the density of population is constantly declining.Absolute quantity of population is persistently decreasing in the center of urban districts,while persistently increasing in the periphery of urban districts.So,there are characteristics of obvious sub-urbanization,and spatial-centrifugal urbanization in the urban area of Shanghai.This paper shows that statistic analysis of spatial auto-correlation should be a good method to explore the hotspots and inner mechanism of distribution,centralization and chang of population.更多还原