【摘要】 天山南坡的萨雷扎兹-库玛拉克河流域在中国阿克苏河协合拉水文站以上面积为12816km2,发育有冰川3195.41km2,冰川覆盖率25%.根据1957—2006年流域站点观测的降水、气温及其径流资料,通过最大熵方法计算了流域冰川物质平衡的逐年变化.结果表明:流域冰川径流深约为895mm,全流域河川径流深为381.3mm,冰川融水占协合拉站控制流量的58.65%,冰川融水变化对流域水资源量的影响非常明显.1957—2006年平均年径流量为48.64×108m3,径流在1993年后急剧增加,1994—2006年的平均年径流量比1957—1993年的增加了10.56×108m3,即增加了23%.由于负物质平衡消耗了大量过去积累的冰川冰,冰川融化对河流额外补给.初步计算,在过去50a由于气温升高引起的冰川净消融额外补给河流的径流量达309.47×108m3,相当于每年径流增加达6.19×108m3,约为年径流量的13%.1957—1993年流域冰川消融对河流的额外净补给量为5.3×108m3,占河流总径流量的11%;1994—2006年流域冰川消融对河流的额外净补给量为8.8×108m3,占河流总径流量的18%.随着气候变暖,虽然降水量增加,但冰川对气温的敏感性更大,冰川消融量加快,冰川融水量持续增加.到21世纪末,随着气温上升和降水增加,年均径流相对1991—2006年将增加11.75×108m3,增幅为22%.更多还原

【Abstract】 The drainage area is 12 816 km2 above Shehel Hydrological Station(Aksu River,China) in Sary Jaz -Kumarik River Basin in which glacier area occupies 25% with an area of 3 195.41 km2. The Glacier runoff is about 895 mm,river runoff is 381^3 mm. Ice melt contributed about 58^65% of the total runoff in the Shehel hydrological Station,so the effects of changes in glacier meltwater on water resources is very vital. The mean annual runoff is 48^64×108 m3 in the period of 1957—2006. The mean annual runoff is increasing dramatically since 1993. The mean annual runoff increased by 10^56×108 m3,also is 23% in 1994—2006 than one in 1957—1993. As a result of a large number of glacier ice melting which were accumulated in the past,by preliminary calculations,mass balance wastages supply additionally 309^47×108 m3,an increase of 6^19×108 m3,about 13% of annual runoff to the river due to climate warming in the past 50 years. The supply additionally of glacier melt is 5^3×108 m3,and occupies 11% of the mean annual river runoff in 1957—1993,and is 8^8×108 m3 and 18% in 1994—2006. With climate warming,although precipitation increasing,glaciers is more sensitive to temperature,the glacial meltwater will be increasing continually.To presume a little change in glacier area in the future,the temperature rise 4 ℃,precipitation increased by 25 mm in 2071—2100,an average annual runoff will be 66^2 × 108 m3,which increases by 19^75 ×108 m3 and the rate of increase is 43% than 1960—1990,and increases by 11^75×108 m3 and 22% than 1991—2006.更多还原