【摘要】 长期以来,人们主要关注财政政策对总需求的影响,而忽略了财政政策潜在的增长效应。现有的研究已经发现,财政不仅通过公共支出直接影响资本积累,进而影响到经济增长,而且财政分权本身也会决定地方政府的激励,借此作用于经济增长。不过,对于这两条作用途径,目前还缺乏充分的经验证据予以支持。基于1994—2005年我国省际面板数据展开的经验研究,通过考量分权、公共支出和经济增长之间的关系,发现地方政府预算外支出以及财政分权显著地阻碍了经济增长,而其他财政支出项目对经济增长的影响不显著。另外,人力资本和贸易开放显著地促进了经济增长。这些发现对于我国今后财政政策的调整和财政体制改革具有重要的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Previous studies focus on the impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand but ignore the potential growth effect of fiscal policy.Nowadays,some researchers show that economic growth is affected not only by fiscal policy due to the effect of public expenditure on capital accumulation,but also by fiscal decentralization which will determine local government’s incentives.Existing empirical evidence on the above two channels is,however,not enough.Based on a provincial panel data during 1994—2005 in China,this study simultaneously considers the relationship among fiscal decentralization,public expenditure and economic growth.We find that both the off-budget expenditure by provincial government and fiscal decentralization significantly hurts economic growth,while other fiscal expenditure variables have insignificant effect on economic growth.Moreover,human capital accumulation and increased trade openness could contribute to economic growth significantly.These findings are of important reference value for future fiscal policy adjustment and fiscal institution reform in China.更多还原