【摘要】 选定过火面积、直接经济效益损失量、间接经济效益损失量、生态价值损失量、成灾面积占该地区森林总面积的百分比、森林火灾发生频度等6个评价指标,用于评判森林火灾危害程度.利用AHP方法求出各个指标对于森林火灾危害程度的权重,并结合相应的权重,求得危害程度值.以森林火灾危害程度为因变量,森林火灾影响因子为自变量,用逐步回归分析方法,得出森林火灾危害程度预测模型.利用未参予建模的数据对模型进行了检验,模型预测精度高,对森林火灾危害程度具有准确的预测作用.更多还原

【Abstract】 Pre-disaster forecast gives important guiding significance to forest fire prevention and monitoring.This paper analyzed six evaluation indexes such as the burned area,direct economic loss,indirect economic loss,loss of ecological value,the disaster area in the region accounting for the percentage of total forest area and the frequency of forest fire occurrence,to evaluate forest fire hazard degree.The hazard degree in Guangzhou City was obtained by using AHP methods in the calculation of the weight of each index and combining the corresponding weights.Then,the fire hazard prediction model was established by taking forest fire hazard as the dependent variable and factors affecting forest fires as variables,and by using stepwise regression analysis.The testing of the model made by employing the data not used before shows that the model forecast has a high accuracy to the prediction of forest fires.更多还原